CAGR 2007 Update

© DBR Currency 2007

We have publicized the value of gauging rarity not only by census count, but also by the census CAGR, or Compound Annual Growth Rate.

As a reminder of the meaning of CAGR, consider a Dallas $10 Burke-Glass FRN, aka Fr. # 945. Only one note was known in the census in 2002. This low count shows that it is rare. But by 2006, nine were known. The Fr. 945’s CAGR is thus 73%. This shows why it is best to look at both the census count as well as the CAGR.

In our prior analysis, we looked at the Gengerke large-size census for years 2002-2006. Here we’ve incorporated the latest available Gengerke data, as of June 17, 2007.

The first chart below shows the year-to-year change in the total number of notes recorded in the census, from 2002 through 2007.

The data show a relatively slow-growth period from 2002 through 2005, but faster growth in 2006 and again in 2007.

Our analysis divided the data into large non-stars, and large stars. We subdivide these two groups into three time periods: 2002-2005, 2005-2006 and 2006-2007.

Here is a CAGR summary, by type, for the large non-stars:

The first trend that jumps out of the data is that the total is changing at a faster rate. This is indicative of a strong market pulling notes into the market and hence into the visibility of the Census. A CAGR of 23.6% from 2006 to 2007 is quite high. But there are some surprising trends within the total.

For example, gold certificates grew very quickly, at 33.7% CAGR, from 2006 to 2007. Silver certificates were right behind at 33.7%. On the other hand, the CAGR of FRNs slowed dramatically, to only 13.5% in the 2006-2007 time frame.

For large stars, the growth rates are different, as shown below:

Clearly stars – which were already much rarer than non-stars – grew at a much slower rate in 2006-2007.

The following table shows various CAGRs for different large types:

Unlike the overall large-size CAGR jump in 2006-07, large stars actually show a large drop in CAGR. The most recent CAGR was only 4.5% star notes, compared to 23.6% for non-stars. The star-note data suggest that 2005-2006 was an aberration, and that the 2006-07 low CAGR is returning to the low rate of 2002-2005.

Further analysis of the FRBN and FRN segments yields the following table:

The data show that in fact FRBN and FRN stars grew at a slower rate (2.9%) than the large stars as a whole (4.5%). Again, the 2005-2006 10.4% CAGR spike looks like an aberration, with the 2006-2007 data returning to 2002-2005 levels.

To order complete spreadsheets of large-size count and CAGRs for 2002 through 2007 by Friedberg Number, email info@dbrcurrency.com